State of the AFL belt
Updated October 3, 2026—Chance to win the next defense
—No schedule on file
—Teams with a 1%+ shot
#1Holder's Elo rank
Season outlook
Brisbane Lions holds the belt through the offseason. The next defense is the first game on Brisbane Lions’ 2027 schedule, once its schedule is out. The outlook comes back as soon as the next schedule is out.
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions Holder | 1712 |
| 2 | Fremantle | 1674 |
| 3 | Geelong | 1659 |
| 4 | Sydney Swans | 1655 |
| 5 | Hawthorn | 1635 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows | 1606 |
| 7 | Collingwood | 1558 |
| 8 | Carlton | 1557 |
| 9 | Western Bulldogs | 1551 |
| 10 | Melbourne | 1523 |
| 11 | GWS Giants | 1499 |
| 12 | Gold Coast Suns | 1469 |
| 13 | St Kilda | 1434 |
| 14 | Port Adelaide | 1403 |
| 15 | North Melbourne | 1373 |
| 16 | Essendon | 1239 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.