State of the CFL belt
Updated September 29, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC Lions | 49% | 42% | 22% | 14% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | — | — | — | 8% |
| Montreal Alouettes | — | — | 20% | 3% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 51% | 38% | 23% | 2% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | — | — | 10% | 1% |
| Ottawa Redblacks | — | 20% | 5% | <1% |
| Calgary Stampeders | — | — | 20% | — |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (October 24, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Toronto Argonauts keep it to the end in 19.8% of runs. 7 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Alouettes | 21.6% | 1588 | |
| 2 | Calgary Stampeders | 20.0% | 1501 | |
| 3 | Toronto Argonauts | 19.8% | 1526 | |
| 4 | BC Lions | 15.1% | 1568 | |
| 5 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 12.2% | 1425 | |
| 6 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 7.1% | 1510 | |
| 7 | Ottawa Redblacks | 4.2% | 1295 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Alouettes | 1588 |
| 2 | BC Lions | 1568 |
| 3 | Edmonton Elks | 1549 |
| 4 | Saskatchewan Roughriders | 1537 |
| 5 | Toronto Argonauts Holder | 1526 |
| 6 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1510 |
| 7 | Calgary Stampeders | 1501 |
| 8 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 1425 |
| 9 | Ottawa Redblacks | 1295 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.