State of the Premier League belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 78% | 34% | 25% | 25% |
| Arsenal | — | 44% | 26% | 22% |
| Brentford | — | — | 18% | 18% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | — | — | 6% | 9% |
| Leeds United | — | — | 9% | 6% |
| AFC Bournemouth | — | 11% | 6% | 4% |
| Everton | — | — | — | 3% |
| Ipswich Town | — | — | — | 3% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | — | — | 5% | 2% |
| Nottingham Forest | — | — | — | 2% |
| Hull City | — | — | — | 2% |
| Fulham | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 30, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Manchester City keeps it to the end in 10.1% of runs. 20 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 10.1% | 1656 | |
| 2 | Arsenal | 10.1% | 1652 | |
| 3 | Liverpool | 7.4% | 1573 | |
| 4 | Manchester United | 6.1% | 1563 | |
| 5 | Sunderland | 5.9% | 1503 | |
| 6 | Chelsea | 5.4% | 1524 | |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 4.8% | 1536 | |
| 8 | Hull City | 4.5% | 1512 | |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth | 4.4% | 1535 | |
| 10 | Everton | 4.4% | 1522 | |
| 11 | Leeds United | 4.3% | 1531 | |
| 12 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4.2% | 1552 | |
| 13 | Brentford | 4.0% | 1543 | |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 4.0% | 1522 | |
| 15 | Coventry City | 3.9% | 1479 | |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 3.8% | 1481 | |
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 3.8% | 1442 | |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 3.5% | 1499 | |
| 19 | Fulham | 3.3% | 1484 | |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2.3% | 1444 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Holder | 1656 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1652 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 1573 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1563 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1552 |
| 6 | Brentford | 1543 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 1536 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 1535 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 1531 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 1524 |
| 11 | Everton | 1522 |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 1522 |
| 13 | Hull City | 1512 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 1503 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1499 |
| 16 | Fulham | 1484 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.