State of the La Liga belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | — | — | 19% | 15% |
| Elche CF | — | — | — | 11% |
| Sevilla FC | — | — | 20% | 10% |
| FC Barcelona | — | — | — | 9% |
| Levante UD | — | — | — | 7% |
| Deportivo La Coruña | — | — | — | 6% |
| Real Sociedad | — | — | — | 6% |
| Deportivo Alavés | — | — | 12% | 6% |
| Atlético Madrid | — | — | — | 5% |
| Athletic Bilbao | 63% | 30% | 11% | 5% |
| Getafe CF | — | 18% | 10% | 4% |
| CA Osasuna | — | — | — | 4% |
| Espanyol | 37% | 20% | 7% | 4% |
| Celta Vigo | — | — | — | 4% |
| Málaga CF | — | 33% | 12% | 3% |
| Valencia CF | — | — | 7% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 30, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Athletic Bilbao keeps it to the end in 4.8% of runs. 20 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 11.7% | 1642 | |
| 2 | FC Barcelona | 11.2% | 1703 | |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7.3% | 1587 | |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid | 6.5% | 1598 | |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 5.0% | 1500 | |
| 6 | Villarreal CF | 4.9% | 1557 | |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 4.8% | 1499 | |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés | 4.6% | 1496 | |
| 9 | Espanyol | 4.2% | 1459 | |
| 10 | Levante UD | 4.1% | 1480 | |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 4.0% | 1515 | |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 3.9% | 1507 | |
| 13 | Getafe CF | 3.8% | 1488 | |
| 14 | Málaga CF | 3.7% | 1463 | |
| 15 | CA Osasuna | 3.7% | 1468 | |
| 16 | Sevilla FC | 3.6% | 1500 | |
| 17 | Elche CF | 3.5% | 1463 | |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña | 3.4% | 1507 | |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 3.2% | 1486 | |
| 20 | Valencia CF | 3.0% | 1479 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 1703 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 1642 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 1598 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 1587 |
| 5 | Villarreal CF | 1557 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 1515 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 1507 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruña | 1507 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 1500 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 1500 |
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao Holder | 1499 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 1496 |
| 13 | Getafe CF | 1488 |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 1486 |
| 15 | Levante UD | 1480 |
| 16 | Valencia CF | 1479 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.