State of the La Liga belt
Updated September 29, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao | 41% | 19% | 27% | 16% |
| Real Sociedad | — | — | — | 14% |
| Elche CF | — | — | 10% | 11% |
| Getafe CF | — | 32% | 13% | 11% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 59% | 28% | 18% | 10% |
| Valencia CF | — | 22% | 10% | 9% |
| Villarreal CF | — | — | 12% | 8% |
| Celta Vigo | — | — | — | 7% |
| Sevilla FC | — | — | — | 6% |
| Levante UD | — | — | 10% | 4% |
| Espanyol | — | — | — | 4% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 30, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Athletic Bilbao keep it to the end in 4.5% of runs. 20 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 12.2% | 1642 | |
| 2 | FC Barcelona | 9.7% | 1703 | |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8.1% | 1587 | |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid | 6.0% | 1598 | |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 5.1% | 1500 | |
| 6 | Villarreal CF | 4.5% | 1557 | |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 4.5% | 1499 | |
| 8 | Levante UD | 4.4% | 1480 | |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 4.3% | 1507 | |
| 10 | Getafe CF | 4.3% | 1488 | |
| 11 | Espanyol | 4.2% | 1459 | |
| 12 | Málaga CF | 4.2% | 1463 | |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 4.0% | 1515 | |
| 14 | CA Osasuna | 4.0% | 1468 | |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés | 3.9% | 1496 | |
| 16 | Elche CF | 3.5% | 1463 | |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 3.4% | 1507 | |
| 18 | Valencia CF | 3.3% | 1479 | |
| 19 | Sevilla FC | 3.2% | 1500 | |
| 20 | Racing Santander | 3.2% | 1486 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 1703 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 1642 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 1598 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 1587 |
| 5 | Villarreal CF | 1557 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 1515 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 1507 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruña | 1507 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 1500 |
| 10 | Sevilla FC | 1500 |
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao Holder | 1499 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 1496 |
| 13 | Getafe CF | 1488 |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 1486 |
| 15 | Levante UD | 1480 |
| 16 | Valencia CF | 1479 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.