State of the Liga MX belt
Updated October 3, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante | 39% | 20% | 11% | 17% |
| Pumas UNAM | — | 18% | 26% | 15% |
| Tijuana | — | — | — | 13% |
| Atlético San Luis | — | — | 17% | 11% |
| Tigres UANL | — | — | — | 11% |
| Cruz Azul | — | — | — | 10% |
| Querétaro | 61% | 36% | 18% | 9% |
| Necaxa | — | — | — | 6% |
| Santos Laguna | — | 26% | 18% | 5% |
| FC Juárez | — | — | 9% | 4% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (November 14, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Atlante keeps it to the end in 8.2% of runs. 18 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 8.2% | 1495 | |
| 2 | Guadalajara | 7.7% | 1567 | |
| 3 | Querétaro | 7.4% | 1525 | |
| 4 | Club América | 7.1% | 1586 | |
| 5 | León | 7.0% | 1490 | |
| 6 | Atlético San Luis | 6.9% | 1465 | |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM | 6.6% | 1527 | |
| 8 | Atlas | 6.6% | 1504 | |
| 9 | Pachuca | 5.7% | 1521 | |
| 10 | Cruz Azul | 5.4% | 1591 | |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 5.1% | 1517 | |
| 12 | Toluca | 4.2% | 1587 | |
| 13 | Monterrey | 4.0% | 1499 | |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 4.0% | 1419 | |
| 15 | Puebla | 4.0% | 1429 | |
| 16 | FC Juárez | 3.7% | 1408 | |
| 17 | Tijuana | 3.4% | 1520 | |
| 18 | Necaxa | 2.9% | 1434 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 1591 |
| 2 | Toluca | 1587 |
| 3 | Club América | 1586 |
| 4 | Guadalajara | 1567 |
| 5 | Pumas UNAM | 1527 |
| 6 | Querétaro | 1525 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 1521 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 1520 |
| 9 | Tigres UANL | 1517 |
| 10 | Atlas | 1504 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 1499 |
| 12 | Atlante Holder | 1495 |
| 13 | León | 1490 |
| 14 | Atlético San Luis | 1465 |
| 15 | Mazatlán | 1436 |
| 16 | Necaxa | 1434 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.