State of the Ligue 1 belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennes | — | — | 22% | 17% |
| Paris Saint-Germain | — | — | — | 16% |
| AS Monaco | — | — | 10% | 15% |
| Le Mans | — | — | 13% | 9% |
| Le Havre AC | — | — | 5% | 9% |
| Paris FC | 68% | 36% | 23% | 7% |
| RC Lens | — | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| Stade Brest | — | 33% | 10% | 6% |
| OGC Nice | — | — | — | 6% |
| ESTAC Troyes | — | — | — | 4% |
| RC Strasbourg | — | — | — | 2% |
| Angers SCO | 31% | 14% | 4% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 29, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Paris FC keeps it to the end in 5.1% of runs. 18 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 11.6% | 1637 | |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 8.4% | 1580 | |
| 3 | AS Monaco | 8.3% | 1590 | |
| 4 | Lille OSC | 7.9% | 1585 | |
| 5 | RC Strasbourg | 6.9% | 1544 | |
| 6 | Olympique Marseille | 6.5% | 1524 | |
| 7 | Stade Rennes | 6.5% | 1564 | |
| 8 | RC Lens | 5.5% | 1554 | |
| 9 | Paris FC | 5.1% | 1547 | |
| 10 | AJ Auxerre | 5.0% | 1478 | |
| 11 | FC Lorient | 4.7% | 1493 | |
| 12 | Stade Brest | 4.2% | 1482 | |
| 13 | Toulouse FC | 4.2% | 1499 | |
| 14 | Le Mans | 3.6% | 1501 | |
| 15 | ESTAC Troyes | 3.0% | 1455 | |
| 16 | OGC Nice | 3.0% | 1474 | |
| 17 | Le Havre AC | 2.8% | 1446 | |
| 18 | Angers SCO | 2.8% | 1463 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1637 |
| 2 | AS Monaco | 1590 |
| 3 | Lille OSC | 1585 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 1580 |
| 5 | Stade Rennes | 1564 |
| 6 | RC Lens | 1554 |
| 7 | Paris FC Holder | 1547 |
| 8 | RC Strasbourg | 1544 |
| 9 | Olympique Marseille | 1524 |
| 10 | Le Mans | 1501 |
| 11 | Toulouse FC | 1499 |
| 12 | FC Lorient | 1493 |
| 13 | Stade Brest | 1482 |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 1478 |
| 15 | OGC Nice | 1474 |
| 16 | Angers SCO | 1463 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.