State of the NRL belt
Updated October 3, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 |
|---|---|
| Sydney Roosters | 69% |
| Newcastle Knights | 31% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (October 4, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Sydney Roosters keep it to the end in 69.1% of runs. 2 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Roosters | 69.1% | 1621 | |
| 2 | Newcastle Knights | 30.9% | 1532 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penrith Panthers | 1645 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 1627 |
| 3 | Sydney Roosters Holder | 1621 |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors | 1609 |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks | 1554 |
| 6 | Melbourne Storm | 1543 |
| 7 | Newcastle Knights | 1532 |
| 8 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 1518 |
| 9 | Canberra Raiders | 1509 |
| 10 | Manly Sea Eagles | 1497 |
| 11 | North Queensland Cowboys | 1480 |
| 12 | Canterbury Bulldogs | 1476 |
| 13 | Brisbane Broncos | 1441 |
| 14 | Parramatta Eels | 1429 |
| 15 | Wests Tigers | 1353 |
| 16 | Gold Coast Titans | 1335 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.