State of the NWSL belt
Updated September 29, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gotham FC | — | — | — | 15% |
| Kansas City Current | 77% | 39% | 23% | 15% |
| Washington Spirit | — | — | 16% | 13% |
| Seattle Reign FC | — | — | 16% | 10% |
| Racing Louisville FC | — | — | — | 8% |
| Orlando Pride | — | — | — | 6% |
| Utah Royals | — | 38% | 21% | 6% |
| Portland Thorns FC | — | 14% | 9% | 5% |
| Angel City FC | — | — | 7% | 4% |
| Houston Dash | — | — | — | 4% |
| Chicago Stars FC | — | — | — | 3% |
| North Carolina Courage | — | — | 5% | 3% |
| Denver Summit FC | — | — | — | 2% |
| Boston Legacy FC | — | — | — | 2% |
| San Diego Wave FC | — | — | — | 2% |
| Bay FC | 23% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (November 1, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Kansas City Current keep it to the end in 14.8% of runs. 16 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gotham FC | 15.6% | 1620 | |
| 2 | Kansas City Current | 14.8% | 1571 | |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 12.6% | 1558 | |
| 4 | Seattle Reign FC | 9.7% | 1518 | |
| 5 | Racing Louisville FC | 8.4% | 1419 | |
| 6 | Orlando Pride | 6.8% | 1492 | |
| 7 | Utah Royals | 6.7% | 1513 | |
| 8 | Portland Thorns FC | 4.6% | 1538 | |
| 9 | Angel City FC | 4.5% | 1528 | |
| 10 | Houston Dash | 3.8% | 1454 | |
| 11 | North Carolina Courage | 3.1% | 1505 | |
| 12 | Chicago Stars FC | 2.8% | 1368 | |
| 13 | Denver Summit FC | 2.2% | 1508 | |
| 14 | Boston Legacy FC | 1.9% | 1451 | |
| 15 | San Diego Wave FC | 1.6% | 1548 | |
| 16 | Bay FC | 1.1% | 1413 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gotham FC | 1620 |
| 2 | Kansas City Current Holder | 1571 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 1558 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave FC | 1548 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns FC | 1538 |
| 6 | Angel City FC | 1528 |
| 7 | Seattle Reign FC | 1518 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 1513 |
| 9 | Denver Summit FC | 1508 |
| 10 | North Carolina Courage | 1505 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 1492 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 1454 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy FC | 1451 |
| 14 | Racing Louisville FC | 1419 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 1413 |
| 16 | Chicago Stars FC | 1368 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.