State of the PWHL belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Frost | 63% | 28% | 13% | 21% |
| PWHL Las Vegas | — | 17% | 25% | 19% |
| Montréal Victoire | — | — | — | 17% |
| Vancouver Goldeneyes | 37% | 20% | 13% | 15% |
| PWHL San Jose | — | 35% | 24% | 11% |
| Seattle Torrent | — | — | 18% | 9% |
| PWHL Detroit | — | — | 7% | 5% |
| New York Sirens | — | — | — | 3% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (April 18, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Vancouver Goldeneyes keep it to the end in 6.8% of runs. 12 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montréal Victoire | 16.2% | 1622 | |
| 2 | Ottawa Charge | 14.9% | 1543 | |
| 3 | Boston Fleet | 12.0% | 1553 | |
| 4 | Minnesota Frost | 10.0% | 1514 | |
| 5 | PWHL Las Vegas | 7.6% | — | |
| 6 | PWHL San Jose | 7.3% | — | |
| 7 | PWHL Hamilton | 6.8% | — | |
| 8 | Vancouver Goldeneyes | 6.8% | 1472 | |
| 9 | Seattle Torrent | 5.4% | 1412 | |
| 10 | PWHL Detroit | 5.1% | — | |
| 11 | Toronto Sceptres | 4.2% | 1439 | |
| 12 | New York Sirens | 3.5% | 1444 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montréal Victoire | 1622 |
| 2 | Boston Fleet | 1553 |
| 3 | Ottawa Charge | 1543 |
| 4 | Minnesota Frost | 1514 |
| 5 | Vancouver Goldeneyes Holder | 1472 |
| 6 | New York Sirens | 1444 |
| 7 | Toronto Sceptres | 1439 |
| 8 | Seattle Torrent | 1412 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.