State of the Serie A belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como Calcio | — | — | 8% | 20% |
| AS Roma | 64% | 52% | 31% | 16% |
| Lazio | — | — | — | 16% |
| Inter Milan | — | — | 15% | 12% |
| Bologna FC | — | — | 21% | 9% |
| SSC Napoli | — | — | — | 6% |
| AC Milan | — | — | 10% | 4% |
| Udinese Calcio | — | — | — | 4% |
| Frosinone Calcio | — | 22% | 7% | 3% |
| Juventus | — | — | — | 3% |
| Torino FC | — | — | — | 3% |
| Parma FC | 36% | 14% | 4% | 2% |
| ACF Fiorentina | — | — | — | 2% |
| AC Monza | — | 12% | 4% | <1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 30, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. AS Roma keeps it to the end in 6.8% of runs. 20 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 9.7% | 1673 | |
| 2 | Juventus | 7.8% | 1595 | |
| 3 | SSC Napoli | 7.4% | 1594 | |
| 4 | Como Calcio | 7.2% | 1593 | |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7.1% | 1590 | |
| 6 | AS Roma | 6.8% | 1625 | |
| 7 | Lazio | 6.4% | 1574 | |
| 8 | Sassuolo Calcio | 5.5% | 1491 | |
| 9 | Cagliari Calcio | 5.4% | 1517 | |
| 10 | Bologna FC | 5.0% | 1504 | |
| 11 | Atalanta | 4.0% | 1544 | |
| 12 | Parma FC | 3.7% | 1473 | |
| 13 | Frosinone Calcio | 3.6% | 1504 | |
| 14 | Udinese Calcio | 3.4% | 1481 | |
| 15 | US Lecce | 3.4% | 1459 | |
| 16 | Torino FC | 3.4% | 1476 | |
| 17 | ACF Fiorentina | 3.2% | 1496 | |
| 18 | AC Monza | 3.0% | 1419 | |
| 19 | AC Venezia | 2.2% | 1416 | |
| 20 | Genoa CFC | 1.8% | 1449 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 1673 |
| 2 | AS Roma Holder | 1625 |
| 3 | Juventus | 1595 |
| 4 | SSC Napoli | 1594 |
| 5 | Como Calcio | 1593 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 1590 |
| 7 | Lazio | 1574 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 1544 |
| 9 | Cagliari Calcio | 1517 |
| 10 | Bologna FC | 1504 |
| 11 | Frosinone Calcio | 1504 |
| 12 | ACF Fiorentina | 1496 |
| 13 | Sassuolo Calcio | 1491 |
| 14 | Udinese Calcio | 1481 |
| 15 | Torino FC | 1476 |
| 16 | Parma FC | 1473 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.