State of the Bundesliga belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 85% | 62% | 50% | 34% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | — | — | — | 16% |
| VfB Stuttgart | — | — | 4% | 11% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | — | — | 12% | 8% |
| SV Elversberg | — | 8% | 4% | 7% |
| Hamburger SV | — | 23% | 10% | 6% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | — | — | 13% | 5% |
| FC Schalke 04 | — | — | — | 5% |
| Borussia Dortmund | — | — | — | 4% |
| RB Leipzig | — | — | — | 1% |
| FC Augsburg | — | — | 5% | 1% |
| 1. FC Köln | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (May 22, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Bayern Munich keeps it to the end in 14.8% of runs. 18 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 14.8% | 1692 | |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8.1% | 1582 | |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 8.1% | 1635 | |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 6.9% | 1560 | |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 6.7% | 1544 | |
| 6 | SV Elversberg | 6.0% | 1516 | |
| 7 | FC Augsburg | 5.7% | 1510 | |
| 8 | FC Schalke 04 | 5.5% | 1489 | |
| 9 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5.2% | 1517 | |
| 10 | VfB Stuttgart | 4.8% | 1548 | |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4.2% | 1515 | |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3.9% | 1509 | |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3.9% | 1486 | |
| 14 | Werder Bremen | 3.4% | 1477 | |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 3.4% | 1446 | |
| 16 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 3.4% | 1452 | |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3.1% | 1451 | |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 3.0% | 1470 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich Holder | 1692 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 1635 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1582 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 1560 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 1548 |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 1544 |
| 7 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1517 |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 1516 |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1515 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 1510 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1509 |
| 12 | FC Schalke 04 | 1489 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1486 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen | 1477 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 1470 |
| 16 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 1452 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.