State of the MLB belt
Updated September 28, 2026—Chance to win the next defense
—No schedule on file
—Teams with a 1%+ shot
#24Holder's Elo rank
Season outlook
There's no regular-season schedule left on file for Minnesota Twins (in season). The outlook comes back as soon as the next schedule is out.
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1574 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1564 |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 1545 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 1542 |
| 5 | San Diego Padres | 1541 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1533 |
| 7 | Atlanta Braves | 1529 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 1528 |
| 9 | Chicago Cubs | 1527 |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1517 |
| 11 | Cleveland Guardians | 1515 |
| 12 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1508 |
| 13 | Houston Astros | 1504 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1501 |
| 15 | Baltimore Orioles | 1500 |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | 1496 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 24 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.