State of the MLB belt
Updated November 12, 2026—Chance to win the next defense
—No schedule on file
—Teams with a 1%+ shot
#24Holder's Elo rank
Season outlook
Minnesota Twins hold the belt through the offseason. The next defense is the first game on Minnesota Twins’ 2027 schedule, once their schedule is out. The outlook comes back as soon as the next schedule is out.
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1590 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1560 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 1546 |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 1542 |
| 5 | San Diego Padres | 1542 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1531 |
| 7 | Atlanta Braves | 1528 |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 1525 |
| 9 | Chicago Cubs | 1523 |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 1517 |
| 11 | Cleveland Guardians | 1513 |
| 12 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1508 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1501 |
| 14 | Baltimore Orioles | 1500 |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 1500 |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | 1496 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 24 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.