The preview
Austin FC host Nashville SC with the belt on the line
Austin FC put the MLS belt on the line for the 6th time this reign. Nashville SC lead the all-time series 2–1, and Nashville have held it 2 times before.
Up next: Austin FC vs. Nashville SC, October 10, 2026. The MLS belt is on the line
Holder · 2nd reign · 5 defenses
AF
Austin
1–0 in the last 5 · Last: tied San Diego FC 3–3
Belt on the line
SAT
October 10, 2026
8:30 PM ET
Challenger · last held 2025
NS
Nashville
2–1 in the last 5 · Last: def. Toronto FC 2–0
If Austin win
6th defense · reign reaches 42 days
If Nashville win
Belt changes hands · Nashville’s 3rd reign
Head to head, belt games
First belt game between these two
2026 records
Austin 7–10–10 · Nashville 18–3–6
38% to defend, per our Elo estimate · 2% to hold the belt through the regular season (outlook)
Beat the lean
Pick before tipoff. We grade it after the game.
Recent form
Last 5 games
Austin FC
- T3–3vs San Diego FCSep 26, 2026
- T0–0at FC DallasSep 19, 2026
- W2–1at Vancouver WhitecapsSep 13, 2026
- T1–1vs Colorado RapidsSep 9, 2026
- T1–1vs San Jose EarthquakesSep 5, 2026
Nashville SC
- W2–0vs Toronto FCSep 26, 2026
- W3–0vs Chicago FireSep 19, 2026
- T2–2at Inter MiamiSep 12, 2026
- L1–2at Toronto FCSep 9, 2026
- T0–0at New York City FCSep 4, 2026
Head to head
All-time series
Nashville SC lead the series 2–1, 1 ties, going back to May 23, 2021.
| Date | Matchup | Score (away–home) |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2024 | Austin FC at Nashville SC | 2–0 |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Nashville SC at Austin FC | 1–1 |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Austin FC at Nashville SC | 0–3 |
| May 23, 2021 | Austin FC at Nashville SC | 0–1 |
The belt tree
State of the belt →Austin FC have a 38% chance to defend, by our Elo ratings. Here's every way the next four belt games can go: win, and the holder plays its next game; lose, and the challenger carries the belt into theirs.
Next belt game
Oct 10
Austin vs. Nashville
Austin 38% · Nashville 62%
Belt game 2
Oct 14 · 62% to happen
Nashville vs. Sporting KC
Nashville 83% · Sporting KC 17%
Oct 14 · 38% to happen
Austin at LAFC
Austin 35% · LAFC 65%
Belt game 3
Oct 17 · 51% to happen
Nashville at San Jose
Nashville 57% · San Jose 43%
Oct 17 · 24% to happen
LAFC at NYCFC
LAFC 47% · NYCFC 53%
Oct 17 · 13% to happen
Austin vs. Vancouver
Austin 42% · Vancouver 58%
Oct 17 · 11% to happen
Sporting KC vs. Real Salt Lake
Sporting KC 49% · Real Salt Lake 51%
Belt game 4
Oct 24 · 29% to happen
Nashville at Montréal
Nashville 71% · Montréal 29%
Oct 24 · 22% to happen
San Jose at Dallas
San Jose 36% · Dallas 64%
Oct 24 · 13% to happen
NYCFC at Orlando
NYCFC 42% · Orlando 58%
Oct 25 · 12% to happen
LAFC vs. Galaxy
LAFC 63% · Galaxy 37%
Oct 24 · 8% to happen
Vancouver at Colorado
Vancouver 59% · Colorado 41%
Oct 24 · 6% to happen
Austin at Sporting KC
Austin 55% · Sporting KC 45%
Oct 24 · 6% to happen
Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis
Real Salt Lake 44% · St. Louis 56%
Oct 24 · 5% to happen
Sporting KC vs. Austin
Sporting KC 45% · Austin 55%
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 62% | 51% | 29% | 21% |
| FC Dallas | — | — | — | 14% |
| CF Montréal | — | — | — | 9% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | — | — | 22% | 8% |
| Orlando City | — | — | — | 7% |
| Los Angeles FC | — | 24% | 12% | 7% |
| Austin FC | 38% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
| New York City FC | — | — | 13% | 5% |
| Sporting Kansas City | — | 11% | 5% | 5% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | — | — | 8% | 5% |
| LA Galaxy | — | — | — | 4% |
| Colorado Rapids | — | — | — | 3% |
| St. Louis City SC | — | — | — | 3% |
| Real Salt Lake | — | — | 6% | 2% |