State of the MLS belt
Updated September 29, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 62% | 51% | 29% | 21% |
| FC Dallas | — | — | — | 14% |
| CF Montréal | — | — | — | 9% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | — | — | 22% | 8% |
| Orlando City | — | — | — | 7% |
| Los Angeles FC | — | 24% | 12% | 7% |
| Austin FC | 38% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
| New York City FC | — | — | 13% | 5% |
| Sporting Kansas City | — | 11% | 5% | 5% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | — | — | 8% | 5% |
| LA Galaxy | — | — | — | 4% |
| Colorado Rapids | — | — | — | 3% |
| St. Louis City SC | — | — | — | 3% |
| Real Salt Lake | — | — | 6% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (November 7, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Austin FC keep it to the end in 2.4% of runs. 30 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas | 8.6% | 1555 | |
| 2 | Nashville SC | 7.4% | 1611 | |
| 3 | FC Cincinnati | 6.3% | 1521 | |
| 4 | Minnesota United | 5.9% | 1467 | |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 5.1% | 1450 | |
| 6 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4.8% | 1509 | |
| 7 | LA Galaxy | 4.8% | 1490 | |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 4.6% | 1534 | |
| 9 | Inter Miami | 4.2% | 1586 | |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 4.2% | 1506 | |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 3.6% | 1469 | |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 3.5% | 1499 | |
| 13 | Los Angeles FC | 3.5% | 1530 | |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 3.0% | 1559 | |
| 15 | New York Red Bulls | 3.0% | 1474 | |
| 16 | New York City FC | 2.9% | 1500 | |
| 17 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.8% | 1585 | |
| 18 | D.C. United | 2.6% | 1442 | |
| 19 | Austin FC | 2.4% | 1475 | |
| 20 | Columbus Crew | 2.2% | 1470 | |
| 21 | Charlotte FC | 2.1% | 1543 | |
| 22 | New England Revolution | 1.8% | 1508 | |
| 23 | Houston Dynamo | 1.8% | 1514 | |
| 24 | Atlanta United | 1.6% | 1433 | |
| 25 | Portland Timbers | 1.5% | 1471 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 1611 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 1586 |
| 3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1585 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Union | 1559 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 1555 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 1543 |
| 7 | St. Louis City SC | 1540 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 1534 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 1530 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 1521 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 1514 |
| 12 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1509 |
| 13 | New England Revolution | 1508 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 1506 |
| 15 | Orlando City | 1503 |
| 16 | New York City FC | 1500 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.