State of the MLS belt
Updated November 13, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps | — | 18% | 15% | 7% |
| Nashville SC | 75% | 47% | 35% | 7% |
| TBD Away | 25% | 8% | 14% | 4% |
| TBD Home | — | 28% | 8% | 3% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (December 2, 2026 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Nashville SC keeps it to the end in 41.5% of runs. 4 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 41.5% | 1638 | |
| 2 | TBD Home | 32.1% | — | |
| 3 | TBD Away | 14.1% | — | |
| 4 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 12.3% | 1592 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC Holder | 1638 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 1596 |
| 3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1592 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Union | 1561 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 1552 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 1549 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 1535 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 1530 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 1525 |
| 10 | New England Revolution | 1519 |
| 11 | Orlando City | 1519 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 1519 |
| 13 | Minnesota United | 1511 |
| 14 | Los Angeles FC | 1511 |
| 15 | Portland Timbers | 1505 |
| 16 | Seattle Sounders | 1503 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 50 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.