State of the NBA belt
Updated September 28, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | — | 39% | 34% | 32% |
| New York Knicks | 83% | 45% | 37% | 30% |
| Detroit Pistons | — | — | — | 14% |
| Toronto Raptors | — | — | — | 5% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | — | 8% | 8% | 5% |
| Orlando Magic | — | — | 8% | 3% |
| Brooklyn Nets | — | — | <1% | 3% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | — | — | — | 3% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 17% | 8% | 6% | 3% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | — | — | 2% | 1% |
| Indiana Pacers | — | — | — | 1% |
| Chicago Bulls | — | — | 5% | <1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (April 11, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. New York Knicks keep it to the end in 9.7% of runs. 21 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 10.3% | 1718 | |
| 2 | New York Knicks | 9.7% | 1739 | |
| 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 9.4% | 1756 | |
| 4 | Denver Nuggets | 6.7% | 1623 | |
| 5 | Los Angeles Lakers | 5.8% | 1600 | |
| 6 | Boston Celtics | 5.6% | 1643 | |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.4% | 1592 | |
| 8 | Miami Heat | 4.7% | 1503 | |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 4.2% | 1599 | |
| 10 | Detroit Pistons | 4.1% | 1641 | |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 4.0% | 1548 | |
| 12 | Houston Rockets | 3.1% | 1585 | |
| 13 | Los Angeles Clippers | 2.7% | 1532 | |
| 14 | Toronto Raptors | 2.6% | 1535 | |
| 15 | Charlotte Hornets | 2.5% | 1571 | |
| 16 | Philadelphia 76ers | 2.4% | 1528 | |
| 17 | Phoenix Suns | 2.4% | 1505 | |
| 18 | Atlanta Hawks | 2.2% | 1548 | |
| 19 | Portland Trail Blazers | 2.1% | 1524 | |
| 20 | Golden State Warriors | 2.1% | 1443 | |
| 21 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1.9% | 1384 | |
| 22 | Brooklyn Nets | 0.9% | 1276 | |
| 23 | Milwaukee Bucks | 0.8% | 1388 | |
| 24 | Chicago Bulls | 0.8% | 1363 | |
| 25 | Dallas Mavericks | 0.8% | 1360 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1756 |
| 2 | New York Knicks Holder | 1739 |
| 3 | San Antonio Spurs | 1718 |
| 4 | Boston Celtics | 1643 |
| 5 | Detroit Pistons | 1641 |
| 6 | Denver Nuggets | 1623 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1600 |
| 8 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1599 |
| 9 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1592 |
| 10 | Houston Rockets | 1585 |
| 11 | Charlotte Hornets | 1571 |
| 12 | Atlanta Hawks | 1548 |
| 13 | Orlando Magic | 1548 |
| 14 | Toronto Raptors | 1535 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1532 |
| 16 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1528 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 70 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.