State of the NBA belt
Updated November 12, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 50% | 38% | 31% | 24% |
| San Antonio Spurs | — | — | 20% | 16% |
| Houston Rockets | — | — | 12% | 8% |
| Boston Celtics | — | — | 10% | 8% |
| Miami Heat | 50% | 21% | 9% | 7% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | — | — | — | 7% |
| Detroit Pistons | — | 29% | 9% | 7% |
| Brooklyn Nets | — | — | — | 4% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | — | — | — | 3% |
| Indiana Pacers | — | — | — | 3% |
| Chicago Bulls | — | — | 7% | 3% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | — | — | — | 3% |
| Orlando Magic | — | — | — | 2% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | — | — | — | 2% |
| Dallas Mavericks | — | 13% | 2% | 1% |
| Golden State Warriors | — | — | — | 1% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (April 11, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Cleveland Cavaliers keep it to the end in 4.2% of runs. 25 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 9.2% | 1679 | |
| 2 | New York Knicks | 7.0% | 1638 | |
| 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 6.9% | 1669 | |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 6.4% | 1623 | |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 6.3% | 1599 | |
| 6 | Denver Nuggets | 6.1% | 1582 | |
| 7 | Boston Celtics | 5.9% | 1648 | |
| 8 | Miami Heat | 5.0% | 1492 | |
| 9 | Houston Rockets | 4.2% | 1601 | |
| 10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 4.2% | 1565 | |
| 11 | Philadelphia 76ers | 3.9% | 1563 | |
| 12 | Detroit Pistons | 3.6% | 1616 | |
| 13 | Orlando Magic | 3.3% | 1501 | |
| 14 | Portland Trail Blazers | 3.1% | 1565 | |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks | 2.8% | 1533 | |
| 16 | Golden State Warriors | 2.8% | 1510 | |
| 17 | Toronto Raptors | 2.3% | 1509 | |
| 18 | Phoenix Suns | 2.1% | 1491 | |
| 19 | New Orleans Pelicans | 2.1% | 1388 | |
| 20 | Charlotte Hornets | 2.1% | 1495 | |
| 21 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1.8% | 1470 | |
| 22 | Brooklyn Nets | 1.7% | 1346 | |
| 23 | Dallas Mavericks | 1.5% | 1444 | |
| 24 | Chicago Bulls | 1.1% | 1368 | |
| 25 | Washington Wizards | 1.1% | 1328 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio Spurs | 1679 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1669 |
| 3 | Boston Celtics | 1648 |
| 4 | New York Knicks | 1638 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1623 |
| 6 | Detroit Pistons | 1616 |
| 7 | Houston Rockets | 1601 |
| 8 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1599 |
| 9 | Denver Nuggets | 1582 |
| 10 | Cleveland Cavaliers Holder | 1565 |
| 11 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1565 |
| 12 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1563 |
| 13 | Atlanta Hawks | 1533 |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 1510 |
| 15 | Toronto Raptors | 1509 |
| 16 | Orlando Magic | 1501 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 70 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.