State of the NFL belt
Updated September 28, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | — | 24% | 18% | 13% |
| Buffalo Bills | — | — | — | 11% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 51% | 27% | 15% | 10% |
| Houston Texans | — | — | 12% | 9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 49% | 26% | 10% | 7% |
| New England Patriots | — | — | — | 7% |
| New York Jets | — | — | 12% | 6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | — | — | — | 6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | — | — | 16% | 5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | — | — | — | 5% |
| Miami Dolphins | — | 23% | 11% | 5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | — | — | — | 5% |
| New York Giants | — | — | — | 4% |
| Carolina Panthers | — | — | 6% | 3% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | — | — | 3% |
| Tennessee Titans | — | — | — | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (January 10, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Jacksonville Jaguars keep it to the end in 2.9% of runs. 32 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 6.3% | 1617 | |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 5.8% | 1578 | |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.5% | 1573 | |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 4.5% | 1545 | |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 4.3% | 1581 | |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4.3% | 1583 | |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 4.2% | 1558 | |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 4.2% | 1624 | |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4.0% | 1551 | |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravens | 4.0% | 1544 | |
| 11 | Houston Texans | 3.7% | 1526 | |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | 3.4% | 1498 | |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | 3.3% | 1558 | |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | 3.3% | 1439 | |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.2% | 1500 | |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | 3.0% | 1516 | |
| 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.9% | 1555 | |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.8% | 1521 | |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.8% | 1462 | |
| 20 | Arizona Cardinals | 2.5% | 1412 | |
| 21 | Washington Commanders | 2.2% | 1460 | |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 2.1% | 1432 | |
| 23 | New Orleans Saints | 2.1% | 1440 | |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.1% | 1455 | |
| 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 2.1% | 1467 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 1624 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 1617 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1583 |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 1581 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 1578 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 1573 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 1558 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 1558 |
| 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars Holder | 1555 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1551 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | 1545 |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 1544 |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 1526 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1521 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | 1516 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1500 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 48 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.