State of the NFL belt
Updated November 12, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — | — | — | 17% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | — | 37% | 31% | 14% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | — | — | — | 12% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | — | 23% | 16% | 9% |
| Washington Commanders | 40% | 17% | 9% | 8% |
| Cleveland Browns | — | — | — | 7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | — | — | — | 7% |
| Tennessee Titans | — | — | 5% | 6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | — | — | 12% | 4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | — | — | 9% | 4% |
| New York Giants | 60% | 23% | 11% | 4% |
| Green Bay Packers | — | — | — | 4% |
| New Orleans Saints | — | — | 7% | 3% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (January 10, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. New York Giants keep it to the end in 2.5% of runs. 31 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 5.8% | 1568 | |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 5.6% | 1555 | |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 5.2% | 1600 | |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 5.2% | 1585 | |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 5.0% | 1647 | |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.9% | 1540 | |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 4.8% | 1535 | |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 4.8% | 1573 | |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 4.2% | 1576 | |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | 4.1% | 1616 | |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.0% | 1592 | |
| 12 | New England Patriots | 3.7% | 1553 | |
| 13 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.3% | 1497 | |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.2% | 1603 | |
| 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 2.9% | 1557 | |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | 2.9% | 1432 | |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.8% | 1552 | |
| 18 | New York Giants | 2.5% | 1462 | |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 2.4% | 1476 | |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | 2.3% | 1429 | |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 2.2% | 1447 | |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 2.2% | 1424 | |
| 23 | Washington Commanders | 2.2% | 1444 | |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 2.1% | 1404 | |
| 25 | Cleveland Browns | 1.9% | 1445 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 1647 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 1616 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1603 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 1600 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1592 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 1585 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 1576 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 1573 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 1568 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1557 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | 1555 |
| 12 | New England Patriots | 1553 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1552 |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1540 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | 1535 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 1497 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 48 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.