State of the NHL belt
Updated November 12, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 61% | 45% | 24% | 24% |
| Dallas Stars | — | — | 20% | 20% |
| Minnesota Wild | — | — | 12% | 12% |
| Calgary Flames | — | — | 9% | 10% |
| Seattle Kraken | — | — | — | 8% |
| Colorado Avalanche | — | — | — | 6% |
| Utah Mammoth | — | — | 11% | 5% |
| San Jose Sharks | — | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| Nashville Predators | 39% | 20% | 8% | 4% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | — | — | — | 3% |
| Vancouver Canucks | — | 16% | 5% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (April 10, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Vegas Golden Knights keep it to the end in 4.1% of runs. 32 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Share | Chance | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 5.1% | 1598 | |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 4.2% | 1556 | |
| 3 | Florida Panthers | 4.2% | 1514 | |
| 4 | Vegas Golden Knights | 4.1% | 1538 | |
| 5 | Nashville Predators | 4.0% | 1494 | |
| 6 | Buffalo Sabres | 4.0% | 1523 | |
| 7 | Edmonton Oilers | 4.0% | 1531 | |
| 8 | Dallas Stars | 3.9% | 1542 | |
| 9 | New York Rangers | 3.8% | 1488 | |
| 10 | New Jersey Devils | 3.6% | 1525 | |
| 11 | St. Louis Blues | 3.4% | 1495 | |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.4% | 1551 | |
| 13 | Montréal Canadiens | 3.4% | 1538 | |
| 14 | Anaheim Ducks | 3.2% | 1495 | |
| 15 | Washington Capitals | 3.1% | 1530 | |
| 16 | San Jose Sharks | 3.1% | 1450 | |
| 17 | Calgary Flames | 3.0% | 1470 | |
| 18 | Ottawa Senators | 3.0% | 1519 | |
| 19 | Minnesota Wild | 3.0% | 1542 | |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 2.9% | 1486 | |
| 21 | Detroit Red Wings | 2.7% | 1474 | |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.6% | 1476 | |
| 23 | Utah Mammoth | 2.6% | 1504 | |
| 24 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2.5% | 1464 | |
| 25 | Winnipeg Jets | 2.5% | 1487 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1598 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 1556 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1551 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 1542 |
| 5 | Minnesota Wild | 1542 |
| 6 | Montréal Canadiens | 1538 |
| 7 | Vegas Golden Knights Holder | 1538 |
| 8 | Boston Bruins | 1533 |
| 9 | Edmonton Oilers | 1531 |
| 10 | Washington Capitals | 1530 |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | 1525 |
| 12 | Buffalo Sabres | 1523 |
| 13 | Ottawa Senators | 1519 |
| 14 | Florida Panthers | 1514 |
| 15 | Utah Mammoth | 1504 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 1495 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 35 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.