State of the NHL belt
Updated September 28, 2026The belt tree
Every way the next four belt games can go.
Who holds it after each game
| Team | After game 1 | After game 2 | After game 3 | After game 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | — | — | 13% | 19% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 68% | 46% | 29% | 16% |
| Montréal Canadiens | — | — | — | 13% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | — | — | 18% | 12% |
| Florida Panthers | 31% | 18% | 9% | 8% |
| Los Angeles Kings | — | — | 7% | 7% |
| Washington Capitals | — | 22% | 9% | 6% |
| Dallas Stars | — | — | — | 5% |
| Anaheim Ducks | — | — | 9% | 5% |
| Edmonton Oilers | — | — | — | 4% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | — | — | — | 4% |
| San Jose Sharks | — | 14% | 7% | 2% |
Who holds it when the regular season ends
We played out the rest of the schedule on file (April 10, 2027 is the last game) 4,000 times, passing the belt game by game with Elo win chances. Carolina Hurricanes keep it to the end in 5.9% of runs. 32 teams finish with it at least 1% of the time.
| # | Team | Chance | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 5.9% | 1618 | |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 4.9% | 1584 | |
| 3 | Buffalo Sabres | 4.7% | 1555 | |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 4.5% | 1554 | |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4.4% | 1551 | |
| 6 | Vegas Golden Knights | 4.0% | 1533 | |
| 7 | Edmonton Oilers | 3.7% | 1512 | |
| 8 | Florida Panthers | 3.7% | 1518 | |
| 9 | Anaheim Ducks | 3.6% | 1488 | |
| 10 | Nashville Predators | 3.5% | 1475 | |
| 11 | St. Louis Blues | 3.4% | 1501 | |
| 12 | Ottawa Senators | 3.2% | 1517 | |
| 13 | New York Islanders | 3.1% | 1497 | |
| 14 | New York Rangers | 3.0% | 1466 | |
| 15 | Minnesota Wild | 3.0% | 1532 | |
| 16 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2.9% | 1500 | |
| 17 | New Jersey Devils | 2.9% | 1498 | |
| 18 | Utah Mammoth | 2.9% | 1499 | |
| 19 | Detroit Red Wings | 2.9% | 1490 | |
| 20 | San Jose Sharks | 2.9% | 1444 | |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 2.8% | 1526 | |
| 22 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2.7% | 1490 | |
| 23 | Calgary Flames | 2.6% | 1467 | |
| 24 | Montréal Canadiens | 2.6% | 1541 | |
| 25 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.5% | 1466 |
Elo power ranking
| # | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes Holder | 1618 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 1584 |
| 3 | Buffalo Sabres | 1555 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 1554 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1551 |
| 6 | Montréal Canadiens | 1541 |
| 7 | Vegas Golden Knights | 1533 |
| 8 | Minnesota Wild | 1532 |
| 9 | Washington Capitals | 1526 |
| 10 | Florida Panthers | 1518 |
| 11 | Ottawa Senators | 1517 |
| 12 | Edmonton Oilers | 1512 |
| 13 | Boston Bruins | 1508 |
| 14 | St. Louis Blues | 1501 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1500 |
| 16 | Utah Mammoth | 1499 |
How the numbers work
Every team gets an Elo rating built from every game in the record, not just belt games. Wins against good teams count more; bigger margins count a little more in football and basketball. Home teams get a bump worth about 35 rating points, and between seasons each rating slides a third of the way back toward average.
The chance to defend comes straight from the two ratings. The outlook plays the rest of the schedule thousands of times. They're honest rough odds, not betting lines.